In the news
On 23 October, presidential candidate María Corina Machado won the Venezuelan presidential primary securing 93 per cent votes. Machado was selected by the opposition party, Voluntad Popular, to face Venezuela’s left-wing President Nicolás Maduro. The primary was carried out in the wake of a deal signed between Maduro and the US-backed opposition on 17 October where Maduro committed to hold competitive and fair elections in 2024. 

On 18 October, US President Joe Biden announced that his government would lift oil and gas sanctions on Venezuela for the next six months. The conditional lift requires Venezuela to “define a specific timeline and process for the expedited reinstatement of all candidates” by the end of November. Additionally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that “all wrongfully detained US nationals and Venezuelan political prisoners” are to be released.

Although Machado has won the primary, she is barred from contesting in the elections for supporting the US sanctions. 

Separately, on 18 October, the US resumed its deportation flights to Venezuela with the first flight carrying over 100 people. Maduro stated: “I am glad that today, in compliance with the agreements discussed and signed between the authorities of Venezuela and the government of the United States, the first group of Venezuelans who have been repatriated have returned.” 

Issues at large
First, a history of contested elections. The issue of contested elections become acute under Maduro. He has been accused of rigging elections and repressing dissent to maintain his grip on power. The 2018 elections were the most disputed where Maduro was re-elected president in an election that was boycotted by the opposition. He was accused of gerrymandering electoral districts, purging voter rolls and intimidating voters. 

Second, Venezuela's multidimensional crisis under the controversial leadership of Maduro. Venezuela’s decade-long multidimensional crisis has deepened under the leadership of Maduro. Maduro is accused of using bans on opposition candidates unlawfully to prevent them from competing in elections and hence to remain in power. Besides, he has been accused of human rights abuses, arbitrary detentions, torture and extrajudicial killings. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Venezuela’s economy has shrunk by over 70 per cent since Maduro took office and the inflation rate is over 100,000 per cent. 

Third, the role of the US in backing Voluntad Popular. The US has provided financial and political support to the opposition through various channels including the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). The US sanctions have made it more difficult for the Maduro government to operate and allowed the opposition to unite. The US also supported opposition leader Juan Guaidó to oust Maduro. This move failed and as a result, the Maduro government accused the US of trying to overthrow it. 

Fourth, the US-Venezuela strained relations. US-Venezuela relations have been strained due to mutual distrust, political hatred and economic issues. The US government has been a vocal critic of the Maduro regime accusing it of human rights abuses and terrorist activities. The US imposed sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector on 28 January 2019. The sanctions prohibited US citizens from engaging in any transactions with the Government of Venezuela including the purchase or sale of Venezuelan oil. This was an effort to pressure the Maduro regime to step down as the US was concerned about the Maduro regime's human rights record and its ties with Russia and other countries that the US considers to be adversaries. The sanctions have had a negative impact on the Venezuelan economy which is heavily dependent on oil exports. Venezuela sees the US as an imperialistic force meddling in its domestic affairs. The history of US involvement in Latin America including the backing of coups and economic sanctions has fuelled this perception. 

In perspective
First, the potential nature of Venezuela's elections. There are concerns that the 2024 elections will not be free and fair as the Human Rights Watch pointed out that “the Maduro regime has a history of rigging elections and repressing dissent.” However, potentially the 2024 elections could be a turning point as the opposition is more united than it has been in years.

Second, divided public response to US rapprochement. The Venezuelan public is divided on the matter of US rapprochement. Some Venezuelans support it believing that it is the best way to improve the country's economy and living standards. They also argue that the rapprochement could put pressure on the Maduro regime to improve its human rights record. Others oppose the rapprochement as it would “only reward” Maduro for his “bad behaviour.” There is also a fear that it could legitimise the Maduro regime and undermine efforts to promote democracy and human rights.